Monday 31 October 2016

Best Trade to Learn From: Exceeded Max Loss - Mar 22 2013

Account: Mar 22 2013 Backtesting

This is the third time I'm trading this position because of the terrible performance of my prior adjustments on this trade I was left with a -$5000 PnL.

Trade entry: Mar 22, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Managing the t+0 line 20 to 25 pts on both sides
  • Apr 3 - Sold 10 x 920 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 5 - Sold 4 x 910 to protect t+0 downside risk
  • Apr 9 - Sold 3 x 930, 1 x 920 to reduce DELTA inside tent
    • Didn't worry about protecting t+0 upside as much. I'm more protective to the downside
  • Apr 10 - Sold 5 x 930, 2 x 940 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 15 - Large move -35 pts as a result my BF's are not being priced well
    • Sold 6 x 900, 4 x 910 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 16 - Sold 2 x 910, 4 x 920 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 17 - Sold 2 x 910, 2 x 900 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 18 - Sold 4 x 900 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 19 - Sold 3 x 920 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Apr 22 - Exited the trade 25 DTE at max loss -$2380
Summary:
This was a difficult trade b/c a few days into the trade I had a PnL of -$3500 i.e. greater than my max loss number of -$2500. I've been told that in situations when price of the RUT drops significantly the market makers (mm's) don't know how to effectively price the butterflies (bf) and therefore the value of the bf's gets yanked until the market stabilizes.

In this situation I increase my absolute loss to $4000 and try to either get to a positive PnL or back to within my max loss threshold of -$2500. The other times I've traded this date I've always exceeded absolute max loss and hit -$5000, which is not cool.

Live to trade another day.

Saturday 29 October 2016

Backtesting 2014 Yellow trades

Account: 2014 Yellow Trades

Trade entry: Jan 24, 2014


Adjustments:

  • Jan 29 - Sold 10 x 1120 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jan 30 - Sold 5 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside
  • Feb 3 - Sold 6 x 1110 to reduce DELTA inside tent (cut 90 delta in half after large drop in RUT, anticipating reversal / bounce)
  • Feb 5 - Sold 4 x 1110 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Feb 6 - Decided to not roll the BF down b/c after the move I felt that there was a good chance for there to be a bounce
  • Feb 10 -  Sold 5 x 1120 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Feb 11 - Sold 2 x 1120, 3 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Feb 13 - Sold 3 x 1130, 4 x 1140 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Feb 18 - Sold 6 x 1140 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Feb 21 - Sold 7 x 1150 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Feb 25 - Sold 2 x 1150, 1 x 1160 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 26 to 27 - There was no backtesting data, therefore resumed adustments on Feb 28
  • Feb 28 - Sold 2 x 1160 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Mar 4 - Rolled BF up
  • Mar 7 - Exited 14 DTE, below max profit of +$1285 b/c spent most of the trade in the negative PnL and was within 15 - 7 DTE, so live to trade another day.
  • Mar 11 - Continued trading and exited at max profit of +$2805.
Summary:

I managed my adjustments systematically, I wouldn't jump over strikes. I'd systematically move my Put Verticals up / down to control my greeks. Also when looking to exit, I was going to exit on 14 DTE, but decided to continue trading because I was in the red with my PnL, but it wasn't unmanageable like with the May 20, 2016 trade where I was down -$4000. Therefore I decided to continue trading as long as volatility is no longer a factor (don't know if this makes sense).

 _________________________________________________________________________________

Trade entry: Mar 21, 2014


Adjustments:

  • Mar 26 - Sold 6 x 1160 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 7 - Sold 10 x 1150 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 8 - Exited at max profit +$2610  (Continued to trade and ended up with a +$4101 PnL Apr 30, 2014)
Summary:

Good trade didn't make too many strong adjustments. When I was positive DELTA inside the tent I reduced my DELTA by half. Didn't jump strikes when making adjustments. Considered staying in the trade because entered position on low volatility and volatility increased 3.5%, but stuck to my rules and exited.

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Trade entry: May 23, 2014


Adjustments:

  • Jun 6 - Rolled BF up (couldn't keep delta/vega negative)
  • Jun 17 - Sold 10 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jun 18 - Sold 5 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jun 23 - Sold 2 x 1150, 3 x 1160 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jun 30 - Sold 5 x 1160 to control VEGA
  • Jul 1 - Rolled BF up
  • Jul 7 - Sold 10 x 1190 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jul 8 - Sold 5 x 1170, 5 x 1160 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jul 10 - Exited 8 DTE below max profit +$1805  
  • (Continued to trade)
  • Jul 10 - Sold 5 x 1150 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jul 11 - Exited 7 DTE above max profit +$2915
Summary:

Good trade made slight half adjustments and didn't jump strikes when making adjustments. Considered staying in the trade to 7 DTE and ended up with above max profit. TRUST YOURSELF and TRUST THE PROCESS!
 _________________________________________________________________________________

Trade entry: Sep 26, 2014


Adjustments:

  • Oct 10 - Sold 3 x 1070, 2 x 1060 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Oct 16 - Sold 2 x 1080 to protect t+0 upside
  • Oct 21 - Sold 7 x 1080 to protect t+0 upside
  • Oct 28 - Rolled BF (can't keep DELTA/VEGA negative)
  • Oct 30 - Sold 5 x 1130 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Oct 31 - Sold 8 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 5 - Sold 5 x 1150 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 6 - Sold 4 x 1150 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 7 - Sold 4 x 1160 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 11 - Sold 3 x 1160 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 12 - Rolled BF up (Can't keep D/V negative)
  • Nov 13 - Sold 8 x 1180 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Nov 14 - Exited 7 DTE below max profit +$660 (Negative GAMMA = -29.48)
  • Continued to trade to see how the trade would have panned out
  • Nov 17 - Exited 4 DTE slightly below max profit +$2470 (Negative GAMMA = -35.68)
Summary:

Good trade made half adjustments and didn't jump strikes when making adjustments. Spent most of the trade in the defensive zone (i.e. negative PnL), but managed to get to a positive PnL 7 DTE  and exited per plan. 
Considered staying in the trade to see how the trade would have panned out, 4 DTE I was up +$2470 and noticed that GAMMA was - 39. Need to understand how to manage my position when GAMMA is really high.

TRUST YOURSELF and TRUST THE PROCESS!

________________________________________________________________________________

Trade entry: Nov 21, 2014


Adjustments:

  • Dec 15 - Sold 7 x 1150 to control DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 17 - Sold 3 x 1160 to protect t+0 upside
  • Dec 18 - Sold 4 x 1160 to protect t+0 upside
  • Dec 19 - Sold 3 x 1160 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Dec 23 - Sold 9 x 1170 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Dec 24 - Low + DELTA outside tent & DID NOT make an adjustment
  • Dec 26 - Rolled BF up
  • Dec 29 - Sold 5 x 1210 to protect t+0 upside
  • Dec 31 - Sold 4 x 1200 to protect t+0 downside
  • Jan 2 - Sold 5 x 1200 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jan 5 - Sold 2 x 1190, 8 x 1180 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jan 6 - Sold 1 x 1170, 9 x 1160 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jan 7 - Sold 2 x 1200, 3 x 1150 to minimize t+0 steep drops in both directions
  • Jan 8 - Sold 8 x 1190 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jan 9 - Exited 7 DTE below max profit +$712 
Summary:

Good trade made half adjustments and didn't jump strikes when making adjustments. Spent most of the trade in the defensive zone (i.e. negative PnL), but managed to get to a positive PnL 7 DTE  and exited per plan.

In the last 8 DTE I was negative PnL and I couldn't protect my t+0 line i.e. my ball was on top of a mountain, but 7 DTE I market came up and gave me a small profit. I don't know how I should have traded this position differently.

Consider getting Dave's feedback.

Backtesting 2012 Yellow Trades

Account: Yellow 2012 Backtesting

Trade entry: Sep 21, 2012


Adjustments:

  • Sep 25 - Sold 4 x 840 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Sep 26 - Sold 5 x 830, 1 x 820 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Sep 27 - Sold 4 x 840 to protect t+0 upside
  • Oct 9 - Sold 5 x 820 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Oct 10 - Exited above max profit of +$2789.
Summary:
Great trade, managed the t+0 line around 20 pts in both directions but my threshold was more around 1500 - 1800. Great trade.

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Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: Oct 26, 2012


Adjustments:

  • Nov 1 - Sold 4 x 800 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Nov 8 - Sold 4 x 790 to protect t+0 downside
  • Nov 13 - Sold 2 x 780 to protect t+0 downside
  • Nov 14 - Sold 8 x 770 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Nov 15 - Sold 7 x 760 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Nov 16 - Exited 35 DTE above max profit of +$3503
Summary:
Great trade, did not jump strikes when trying to control DELTA, that is the trick to systematic discretionary trading. My trade adjustments are a lot better when I systematically make adjusts without jumping over strikes.

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Friday 28 October 2016

Backtesting 2013 Yellow Trades

Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: Jan 18, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Managed Adjustments using t+0 +/- 30 pts
  • Feb 1 - Sold 7 x 880 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 5 - Sold 3 x 880 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 7 - Sold 5 x 890 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 14 - Rolled BF up
  • Feb 19 - Sold 3 x 930 to reduce DELTA and protect t+0 upside
  • Feb 20 - Sold 7 x 920 to protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 21 - Sold 5 x 900 to protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 22 - Sold 2 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Feb 25 - Sold 3 x 920, 2 x 900 to protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 26 - Sold 3 x 910 to protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 27 - Sold 7 x 920 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 4 - Sold 3 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 5 - Sold 7 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 6 - Rolled BF up
  • Mar 7 - Sold 2 x 940 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 8 - Exited 7 DTE below max profit of +$651.
Summary:
Weird trade - did worse than my previous trade. Also, didn't place my order on the same date, which was weird. I should go back and re-trade this.

 _________________________________________________________________________________

Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: Jan 18, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Managed Adjustments using t+0 +/- 20 pts
  • Jan 28 - Sold 6 x 880 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 5 - Sold 4 x 880 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 7 - Sold 5 x 890 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Feb 14 - Rolled BF up
  • Feb 19 - Sold 3 x 930 to reduce DELTA and protect t+0 upside
  • Feb 20 - Sold 3 x 910 to reduce DELTA and protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 21 - Sold 3 x 900 to protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 22 - Sold 3 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Feb 25 - Sold 4 x 880, 1 x 870 to reduce DELTA & protect t+0 downside
  • Feb 27 - Sold 2 x 920, 1 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 1 - Sold 2 x 900 to protect t+0 upside
  • Mar 4 - Sold 2 x 920 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 5 - Sold 7 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 6 - Rolled BF up
  • Mar 7 - Sold 2 x 940 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Mar 8 - Exited 7 DTE below max profit of +$316.
Summary:
Weird trade - did worse than my previous trade. Profit is less than before. Anyhow followed my rules and trade is still a win regardless of profit number.

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Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: Mar 22, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Apr 3 - Sold 6 x 920, 3 x 910 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 4 - Sold 1 x 930 to protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 5 - Sold 2 x 910 to protect t+0 downside
  • Apr 9 - Sold 4 x 940 to reduce DELTA and protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 10 - Sold 2 x 950, 3 x 960 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent and protect t+0 upside 
  • Apr 15 - MM hit volatility and took the value out of my BF's therefore have to increase ABS Max Loss to $4000
    • Sold 1 x 930, 5 x 890 to reduce DELTA 
  • Apr 16 - Sold 2 x 930, 1 x 940 to protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 17 - Sold 1 x 920, 1 x 910 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 18 - Sold 2 x 890 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 19 - Sold 3 x 950 to protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 22 - Sold 1 x 920, 1 x 910 to protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 23 - Sold 1 x 960 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Apr 24 - Sold 2 x 960, 1 x 940 to reduce DELTA inside tent and protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 25 - Sold 2 x 960 to protect t+0 upside
  • Apr 29 - Sold 2 x 930 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent and protect t+0 upside
  • May 1 - Sold 1 x 910, 2 x 900 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • May 2 - Sold 2 x 950 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • May 3 - Sold 2 x 960 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • May 6 - Sold 3 x 960 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • May 8 - Sold 1 x 960 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • May 10 - 7 DTE and exited above MAX LOSS at -$5197!!!!!

Summary:
Weird trade - did worse than my previous trade. Need to figure out what my rules are to manage these sorts of trades. Get feedback from Dave, need to practice minimizing losses. 

 _________________________________________________________________________________

Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: June 21, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Jul 1 - Sold 3 x 930 to control VEGA
  • Jul 3 - Rolled BF up (can't keep delta/vega negative)
  • Jul 8 - Sold 2 x 970 to protect t+0 upside (30 pts)
  • Jul 10 - Sold 4 x 970 to control VEGA
  • Jul 11 - Rolled BF up
  • Jul 15 - Sold 6 x 1020 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 19 - Sold 4 x 1030 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 25 - Sold 5 x 1030 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Aug 1 - Sold 3 x 1040 to control VEGA
  • Aug 2 - Rolled BF up
  • Aug 5 - Sold 4 x 1070 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Aug 6 - Sold 2 x 1070 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Aug 7 - Sold 6 x 1050 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Aug 8 - Exited 8 DTE above MAX PROFIT at +$2746
Summary:
8 DTE I hit max profit, good trade.

 _________________________________________________________________________________

Account: Yellow 2013 Backtesting

Trade entry: August 23, 2013


Adjustments:

  • Aug 27 - Sold 4 x 1000 to protect t+0 downside
  • Aug 29 - Price dropped below 0 line, therefore increasing my adjustment threshold to 1800 to 2000 and Max Loss to 3500.
  • Sep 9 - Sold 4 x 1010 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Sep 17 - Sold 3 x 1010, 3 x 1020 to control VEGA 
  • Sep 18 - Rolled BF up
  • Sep 20 - Sold 2 x 1060, 2 x 1070 to protect 25 pts t+0 upside
  • Sep 24 - Sold 4 x 1070 to protect t+0 25 pts upside
  • Oct 1 - Sold 2 x 1070, 2 x 1080 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Oct 8 - Sold 6 x 1060, 4 x 1050 to reduce DELTA inside tent (cut positive DELTA by half)
  • Oct 9 - Exited 9 DTE slightly below MAX PROFIT at +$2294
  • Oct 9 - Continued trading to 7 DTE
    • Sold 4 x 1050 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Oct 10 - Sold 4 x 1070, 6 x 1080 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Oct 11 - Exited 7 DTE below max profit +$338
Summary:

Exited at 9 DTE at a decent profit, but continued trading to realize that its ok to take profits early if I've been constantly battling with a trade. At 7 DTE I exited for a very small profit therefore I should take profits quicker in the last 10 to 7 DTE.



Tuesday 25 October 2016

Backtesting 2015 Yellow Trades

Account: 2015 Yellow Trades

Trade entry: Sept 25, 2015


Adjustments:

  • Sep 28 - Sold 5 x 1090 to hedge t+0 downside
  • Oct 5 - Sold 3 x 1110 to hedge t+0 upside
  • Oct 15 - Sold 4 x 1120 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Oct 23 - Sold 2 x 1120, 1 x 1130 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Oct 28 - Sold 6 x 1130 to control VEGA
  • Nov 2 - Rolled BF up
  • Nov 3 - Sold 3 x 1180, 3 x 1190 to protect t+0 upside
  • Nov 9 - Exited at max profit of +$3203
New Rule: Don't over adjust and focus on keeping t+0 flat. When making adjustments consider systematically rolling  Put Verticals instead of jumping strikes.

Summary:
The key to trading is to not over trade through adjustments, as I was retrading this position I looked at my original adjustments count of 9 and how many adjustments on the retrade, count of 7. What I noticed I did differently here was that I didn't constantly focus on flattening the t+0 line, but rather kept t+0 risk on.

I managed my adjustments differently also, when making adjustments I wouldn't jump over strikes. I'd try and systematically move my Put Verticals up / down to control my greeks.
 _________________________________________________________________________________

Account: 2015 Yellow Trades

Trade entry: Nov 20, 2015


Adjustments:

  • Dec 11 - Sold 7 x 1130 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 14 - Sold 3 x 1120 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 16 - Sold 10 x 1140 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 17 - (Could have exited at below max profit +$2430) 
  • Dec 18 - Sold 8 x 1130, 2 x 1120 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 21 - Sold 1 x 1120, 1 x 1110 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 22 - Sold 3 x 1140 to protect t+0 upside risk
  • Dec 23 - Sold 6 x 1140, 1 x 1150 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Dec 28 - Exited at max profit of +$2632
  • Continued trading to see the trade through to end of month.
  • Dec 29 - Sold 9 x 1160 to reduce DELTA inside tent.
  • Dec 30 - Exited at profit of +$2942
New Rule: Early on in the trade if I'm within the first 30 days don't take below profit target. Within the last 15 - 7 DTE is when I should exit for a slightly below profit.

Summary:
The key to trading is patience and having faith in my system. What I did differently from the last time I traded was I continued trading to hit my max profit. I made reasonable adjustments and could have exited at +$2632  even $2942. The key is to not accept PnL below profit target within the first 30 days of the trade. Have faith in the system and myself.

Exit for slightly below max profit target if I'm between 15 - 7 DTE if my position has been in a negative PnL for most of the time, otherwise continue trading as I would.


Sunday 23 October 2016

Backtesting 2016 Yellow Trades

Account: 2016 Yellow Trades

Trade entry: Jan 22, 2016

Adjustments:

  • Feb 11 - Sold 6 x 970 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Feb 17 - Sold 8 x 980 to protect t+0 upside
  • Feb 22 - Sold 5 x 990 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Feb 24 - Sold 5 x 990 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Feb 26 - Sold 9 x 1000 & 1 x 1010 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Mar 1 - Sold 9 x 1010 to control VEGA
  • Mar 2 - Rolled BF up
  • Mar 3 - Sold 7 x 1060 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Mar 4 - Sold 2 x 1060 to protect t+0 upside
  • Mar 10 - Exited trade (8 DTE) below profit target + $902
New Rule: If the trade has been trending up/down and the position has been a constant fight with a negative PnL for 75% of the trade. Take any positive PnL between 10 - 7 DTE. Survive to trade the next day.
_________________________________________________________________________________
Account: Yellow May 20 2016

Trade entry: May 20, 2016

Adjustments:

  • May 25 - Sold 4 x 1080 to control VEGA
  • May 27 - Rolled BF up
  • May 31 - Sold 4 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside
  • There was a volatility hit and my BF's lost some value.
    • Managing to a ABS Max Loss of $4k with 1500 - 2000 threshold
  • Jun 7 - Sold 1 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside
  • Jun 8 - Rolled BF up (can't keep delta/vega negative)
  • Jun 9 - Sold 4 x 1150 to protect t+0 downside
  • Jun 10 - Sold 3 x 1140 to protect t+0 downside
  • Jun 13 - Sold 2 x 1130 to protect t+0 downside
  • Jun 17 - Sold 2 x 1120 to protect t+0 downside
  • Jun 20 - Sold 3 x 1180, 2 x 1190 to protect t+ 0 upside
  • Jun 22 - Sold 2 x 1120 to protect t+0 downside 
  • Jun 23 - Sold 3 x 1200 to protect t+0 upside
  • Jun 24 - Rolled BF down (large down move)
  • Jun 27 - Sold 3 x 1070 to reduce DELTA inside tent
  • Jun 28 - Sold 2 x 1120, 2 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside
  • Jun 29 - Sold 1 x 1120, 2 x 1130 to protect t+0 upside (Decided not to flatten my t+0, b/c I want to let my trade inflate back up).
  • Jun 30 - Sold 2 x 1120, 2 x 1130 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 1 - Sold 2 x 1130, 2 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 6 - Sold 3 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 7 - Sold 3 x 1140 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Jul 8 - Exited the position 7 DTE above max loss -$3253
Note:
> If I wait to roll my trades e.g. greater than +20pts above upper wing, then I often times will have to extensively manage my trades. 
>After huge drops in price the RUT will often times bounce up, therefore when looking at DELTA after a huge drop, keep some positive DELTA for the bounce.

New Rule: Roll the butterfly when I can't keep delta/vega negative regardless of how many pts above my upper wing they are.


_________________________________________________________________________________
Account: Yellow May 20 2016

Trade entry: July 22, 2016

Adjustments:

  • Aug 5 - Sold 7 x 1180 to control VEGA
  • Aug 15 - Rolled up BF
  • Aug 17 - Sold 3 x 1230 to protect t+0 downside
  • Aug 22 - Sold 3 x 1230 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Aug 23 - sold 4 x 1230 to protect t+0 upside
  • Aug 30 - Sold 3 x 1240 to control DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Sep 2 - Sold 1 x 1240, 4 x 1250 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
  • Sep 6 - Sold 2 x 1250 to reduce DELTA inside edge of tent
    • Sept 6 - I was at 10 DTE per my previous note from Jan 22, I could have taken a profit here of $2247 (but continued to trade to 7 DTE)
  • Sep 7 - Sold 4 x 1250 to reduce DELTA outside tent
  • Sep 9 - Exited the position 7 DTE less than max loss -$1494

Summary

After re-trading these positions I've determined that sometimes its inevitable to avoid a loss, even minimize that loss. On the May 20th trade after getting hit with a volatility crush the market makers took value out of my BF's, when I took my trade to less of a loss approximately from -$3500 to -$1953, I should have exited the trade then. In these volatility crush environments its just better to minimize the loss.

Also, if I've been fighting a trade and spent most of my trade managing a negative PnL, I should exit anywhere between 10 - 7 DTE with a profit, anything above 2k is great, but over $500 is acceptable. Live to trade another day.



Saturday 22 October 2016

Results of Backtesting from 2012 - 2016

Here are my backtesting results from 2012 to 2016 (yellow items are below profit target):


My next step is to go back over the transactions that had a loss or did not achieve full profit target (+$2500) and review / re-trade those positions (highlighted in yellow).

Here is my PnL graph showing my monthly PnL in blue and my Cumulative PnL in orange.